At first glance, Beijing's decision to impose export restrictions on a crucial mineral may seem like old-fashioned Realpolitik. Antimony is a vital ingredient for a variety of military and defense applications, including the hardening of bullets and tanks, as well as more conventional uses like nuclear bombs and night-vision goggles. China justified the action with references to non-proliferation and national security, but climate change is also at least as significant a factor.
This is due to the fact that photovoltaic glass, which enhances solar panel performance, also uses silver-grey metalloid. China now has 1,000 gigawatts of production capacity for these renewable energy generators.
A large portion of energy is for home use; the nation's National Energy Administration reports that, in the first half of this year, solar power output increased 47% year over year, surpassing a record set in 2023. The People's Republic is therefore on track to install 1,200 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2030, a goal it established four years ago. With almost 80% of the world market for solar panels, China likewise holds a dominant position in this sector.
Of course, there are worries about overcapacity. However, even with a slower rate of solar panel manufacturing, antimony will still be in high demand for photovoltaic glass. As reported by Fastmarkets last year, Kang Dongsheng, the chair of the main state-owned miner Twinkling Star, predicted that the industry will overtake fire-retardant products as the largest user.
The problem is that there is less antimony available. According to the US Geological Survey, China is the top producer, contributing over half of the elements excavated last year. However, even 40,000 tons is nearly 80% less than what China extracted in 2008 and 55% less than what it mined four years before.
Up until recently, Russia and Tajikistan took up part of the slack. However, production worldwide has decreased by 50% compared with 2019. Since then, the price of antimony has quadrupled, doubling this year alone. The US-listed Perpetua Resources, for instance, has a new mine scheduled for 2028, but new supply seems to be a long way off.
Overall, Chinese exports are likely to decline as a result of the restrictions, which force exporters to apply for licenses before selling to customers who might use the product for both military and civilian purposes. This will fuel concerns that Beijing is retaliating against what it perceives to be unfair trade practices against the nation by exploiting its market power. However, the most recent action is essentially a defense of China's green offensive.