The EU has overcome numerous challenges in the past. Moscow's bullying of Kyiv into signing an unfair peace agreement could be the impetus for the EU to establish stronger security relations, given Russia's success in that country. Under pressure, though, the bloc might also break apart. Economic cooperation within the EU may break down if disagreements arise about how to protect itself from a resurgent Russia.
Security throughout Europe has suffered in the last few weeks. Not only Ukraine is disadvantaged in the battle, Donald Trump is getting closer to being the next president of the US. He has stated that he will not defend European nations against Russian aggression.
This adds credence to the "worst-worst" scenario as described by former German defense minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, in which Europe is left to defend itself against a more strong Russia.
Large Western European powers have been at odds with each other thus far. A few allies became irritated with French President Emmanuel Macron when he suggested dispatching European troops to Ukraine. The stakes were raised when Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened nuclear war in the event that the West dispatched forces to Ukraine.
Could the EU truly build a more robust collective defense with all this chaos?
Hanging together
The EU is not new to bickering. Notwithstanding years of discord, the group managed to survive the euro crisis. In the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, the EU also, after much debate, decided on an 800 billion euro strategy to support its economy and create an environmentally sustainable future. One of the EU's founders, Jean Monnet, predicted that Europe would be forged in crises, and these events appear to support his prediction.
The way that the EU responded to the Russian invasion of Ukraine surprised doubters. They have managed to weather a significant cut in Russian gas supplies, given 4.2 million Ukrainian refugees short-term shelter, placed sanctions on Moscow, and started talks for Kyiv's EU membership.
The EU executive body, the European Commission, unveiled a defense industry plan last week that calls for member states to cooperate in order to meet 40% of their defense needs, up from 18% in 2022. In the meantime, members led by Germany are increasing their defense budgets.
Former European Commissioner Pascal Lamy claims the EU is in the midst of an "existential" test. It is unable to survive as an herbivore in a carnivorous world. In order to finance the creation of a common defense capability, the bloc will need to jointly borrow more money under the pretext of necessity.
Hanging separately
However, the possibility exists that the EU will not unite. It hasn't always come together to meet difficulties. The migratory issue brought on by the civil war in Syria was one of the things that caused Britain to leave the EU.
There has also not been enough urgency in the EU's response to the current issue. It is still hesitant to transfer the Russian assets that it froze at the beginning of the invasion to Ukraine, and only slightly more than half of the one million artillery shells that the bloc pledged to supply to Kiev last year have been delivered. Additionally, one of the strategy's architects acknowledges that the 1.5 billion euros the Commission is proposing to fund its defense industry strategy is "not a lot of money."
Having divergent objectives across EU member states is a greater cause for concern. Germany is cautious about upsetting Russia, Poland and some other eastern European countries are strongly opposed to Putin, while south European countries do not view Moscow as a major danger.
Macron is eager for Europe to gain "strategic autonomy" and to stop obediently adopting the US foreign policy position. However, it is still unclear if his attempt to nudge his European partners toward greater daring will succeed or fail.
Should far-right nationalist politicians keep gaining popular support in European nations, EU unity towards Russia will be put to the test once more. A few have been followers of Putin, such as Marine Le Pen of France, who is expected to be Macron's successor when he leaves office in three years.
If Trump retakes the White House, European leaders would each try to stabilize their relationship with him individually. They can't disregard the US, even though they do not like the former reality television star.
Trump, who despises the EU, would be pleased to see a string of European leaders head to Washington. He may leverage their strategic requirements to ask for economic compromises on a bilateral level, such as pressuring them to purchase more American military hardware. That can cause the bloc to become further divided.
Do not test the hypothesis
In the event of a Russian triumph, it is uncertain if the EU would be hanging together or separately. Thus, it would be better for EU leaders to take every precaution to prevent that scenario.
They can still provide significant financial support to Kiev so it can fight back, maybe through a syndicated loan secured by Ukraine's claim for damages caused by the war against Russia. Furthermore, it's not too late to provide Kyiv with the kind of advanced weaponry that Scholz refuses to give.
Leaders should boost their own defense budget in the meantime to get ready for a Trump win. In this manner, the former president will have fewer grounds for charging them with free riding on US protection.
If these actions are not taken, European leaders will have to rely on the hope that, as the situation in Ukraine deteriorates, the EU will belatedly step up to the plate.