The administration of President Joe Biden appeared to view the Middle East as a prop for world geopolitics six months ago. The United States and its allies intended to concentrate on Russia's war in Ukraine and prevent China from growing too powerful.
However, everything changed when militants from Hamas carried out the worst attack in Israeli history, which exacerbated the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Iran's attack on Israel over the weekend has now highlighted the risk of a regional conflict.
The wealthy democracies are not just being diverted from aiding Ukraine by the conflict in Gaza. Additionally, it is weakening support in less developed nations and has increased Donald Trump's chance of winning the presidency again. All of this undermines the grand strategy of the West.
Rich democracies will suffer if their geopolitical objectives are not met. There will be more breakdowns in the rule of law, which is the foundation of both trade and security. The amount of money that nations spend on defense must be increased far more than they already plan to. The Western alliance may also disintegrate if China and Russia play off nations against one another. Europe might even break up if Russia conquers Ukraine.
It might not work out that way in the future. Biden might be able to halt the violence in the Middle East from getting worse. He might even succeed in bringing peace to Israel and Palestine now that he is pressuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to accept a ceasefire in Gaza. Even if he fails, the United States might still be able to successfully achieve its larger objectives. However, it is functioning with a handicap.
Western nations would inevitably be sidetracked from their other objectives by the war between Israel and Hamas. Leaders can only do so much. As the number of civilian deaths and near-starvation cases in Gaza has increased, Western officials have been attempting to put an end to the conflict.
Attention is not being paid enough to Ukraine. Congress has not yet approved a new financial package for Kyiv, despite the country's weapons shortage and a recent Russian attack on the nation's electrical infrastructure.
Worries have been intensified by the way the United States has responded to Israel's attack on Gaza. Before declining to support a demand for a ceasefire last month, the United States vetoed three proposed resolutions on the conflict in Gaza in the UN Security Council. It also criticized South Africa for filing a genocide lawsuit at the International Court of Justice against Israel.
The United States has a wide range of diplomatic, commercial, and military ties with other countries. However, Russia and China have managed to take advantage of their hypocrisy and lack of focus to promote their own claims that poor countries are suffering from US hegemony.
It's unclear how the confrontations over the weekend will impact the US president's strategy. However, Israel's initial response was ambiguous. It is participating in new ceasefire talks and has reopened a bridge into Gaza. But Netanyahu also declared that he had scheduled an invasion of Rafah, the current gathering place for the majority of Gaza's population.
Biden will be able to reorient his grand strategy if he can assist in achieving a peace agreement. But even though halting further escalation and establishing a temporary truce are significant tasks in and of themselves, they are simply the first steps in a protracted and difficult process. The longer the Middle East is embroiled in violence, the more challenging the West's larger geopolitical objectives will become.